Wednesday, September 17, 2008

EUR/USD view.


The recently battered EUR will continue its relief rally for a bit while the US financial system implodes and the fed remains hawkish on rates. Possible resistance at appx $1.4440 but even if that's broken I would expect the long term downtrend to continue until we get a convincing reversal pattern established. 9/17



This opportunity has passed. A take profit order at $1.4440 would've bagged a ~50 pip profit. Small but considering the tumultuous markets it's worth taking. Expect the dollar to rally on the new Fed proposal to create a fund that will purchase $800 billion in toxic assets. Long dollar is back in vogue. Time to sell gold?? 9/18

Major turnaround in NG




After the violent sell off in Natural Gas (NG) it appears we have broken a significant downtrend. We had a Doji yesterday followed by a nice gap-up and Bullish Marubozu, these along with increased volume point to a potent rally in the works. 9/17

I'm still a believer in the NG rally. Although we had a bearish injection number of 67 Bcf, verses analyst forecast of 63 Bcf, and the minimal damage from Ike the chart is compelling. Lets keep our eye on this one and see if we can find a good entry point. 9/18